• 06/09/2025
  • Article

Between waves and turning points: Why the future of the process industry is being decided now

Is the future slipping away from engineers? Recent studies such as the VDI's AI study raise questions. Polycrises and technical progress are unsettling us and leading to geopolitical upheavals. It is time to try to make sense of it all – and to make a case for consistent digitalisation.

Written by Armin Scheuermann

Surfer on a wave consisting of the trends biotech, AI and sustainability
For industry, the same applies as for surfers: either you ride the wave or you get swept away by it.

A navigation system is only as good as the map it is based on. As long as the road layout does not change, we can reliably find our way to our destination. But what happens when not only the route but the entire coordinate system shifts? When north suddenly becomes south?

There is a real-life example of this in geophysics: approximately every 250,000 years, the Earth's magnetic field reverses. Then the compass no longer points north, but south. Something similar is currently happening to our technological orientation. Business models that have provided direction and security for decades, for example based on fossil fuels, classic basic chemicals or analogue value creation, are rapidly losing their validity. Those who continue to navigate according to the old coordinates will not reach their destination. Or they will go round in circles.

As early as the 20th century, economists such as Nikolai Kondratieff described how technological and economic progress takes place in long innovation cycles. Each of these ‘long waves’, which last around 40 to 60 years, is triggered by key technologies and shapes an entire era: from the steam engine to electrification and petrochemicals to computers and the internet.

Kondratieff waves over a timeline and the representation of returns of the S&P index
Kondratieff waves and rolling 10-year returns of the S&P 500 according to a 2010 Allianz study.

For over a decade, futurologists have been speculating about the emergence of a sixth wave. Today, there are growing signs that it has begun. Its drivers are artificial intelligence, biotechnology and sustainability. What these areas have in common is the need for enormous computing power, data-driven decision-making logic and interdisciplinary collaboration.

Old models are coming to an end, new ones are emerging

The change is particularly evident in the digital avant-garde itself: Google, the symbol of the fifth wave, is under pressure with its core business model. Generative AI such as ChatGPT or Claude is not only changing the way we interact with machines. It is also fundamentally challenging the ad-based search engine model. More and more users are asking a language model directly and no longer clicking on links.

The new is growing, the old is receding. Italian philosopher Antonio Gramsci described this state of affairs around 100 years ago as follows: ‘The old world is dying, the new world is not yet born. In this interregnum, many morbid symptoms arise.’ Or, to put it more bluntly: ‘It is the age of monsters’ – and there is certainly no shortage of monsters in geopolitics at present.

This ‘Gramsci gap’ can also be observed in industry: between the end of old business models and the stable emergence of new technologies, a productive but risky vacuum arises. Disorientation. Hesitation. Disruption.

AI alone is not the revolution

The hype surrounding AI easily obscures the big picture. AI is not the sole driver of the next wave, but only part of it. The real revolution lies in the combination of technologies.

  • Bio-based chemistry is replacing fossil molecules with renewable ones.
  • Biopharma is fundamentally changing drug development.
  • Sustainability goals require new evaluation standards in processes.
  • AI, in turn, creates new control options for highly complex systems.

All these megatrends are based on one raw material: data. And this data must be extracted from the processes. This is where our responsibility as engineers begins.

Technology provides data and creates value

The foundation for data-driven business models, smart services and adaptive production systems is created where sensor technology, control, process control technology and IT converge. Those who establish a continuous data chain from the field device to the cloud are laying the foundation for change.

Technologies such as Ethernet APL already provide the physical basis for high-speed data communication, even from explosion-proof zones. What was once considered a niche topic is becoming standard.

But infrastructure alone is not enough. Change requires the application of new data models such as DEXPI, open platforms that enable interoperability, and the consistent use of digital twins that span the entire plant lifecycle – from planning and operation to decommissioning.

Discrepancy between necessity and attitude

However, a recent VDI study from May 2025 shows that less than 40 percent of engineers surveyed in Germany expect AI to fundamentally change their working environment in the near future. This stands in stark contrast to a Gartner forecast that by 2027 at the latest, 80% of the technical workforce will be forced to expand their Artificial Intelligence skills.

This cognitive dissonance between requirements and expectations poses a risk for the region. While the US is directing massive investments into digital and green technologies with the Inflation Reduction Act and China is connecting platforms and production, hesitation prevails in Europe. The fact that AI courses will be compulsory for primary school pupils in China from autumn 2025 and that the number of engineering students in China is around three times higher than in Europe gives an idea of what the future competitiveness of European and German engineering might look like.

Conclusion: Act now – or be swept away by the wave!

The sixth Kondratieff wave is rolling. And it is not a trend that can be ignored. Europe has a lot going for it: excellent education, an outstanding ecosystem of industry, skilled workers and researchers, one of the world's largest economies and ethical standards. What counts now is the courage to implement change, openness to new ways of thinking and the willingness to understand digitalisation as a core industrial competence.

Monsters in a trough
Antonio Gramsci described the transition period (transformation phase) in a turning point in history as a ‘time of monsters.’

Author

Armin Scheuermann
Armin Scheuermann
Chemical engineer and freelance specialised journalist